SNAP ANALYSIS-Obama prods North Korea back to nuclear talks

SEOUL - U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Asia may increase pressure on North Korea to return to stalled nuclear talks, but it is a long way from ensuring that Pyongyang will take permanent disarmament steps.

Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said after a summit on Thursday that destitute and isolated North Korea could win massive aid and better global standing if it scraps its nuclear plans. [ID:nSEO199957]

Obama's talks in Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul, where he won backing for dispatching his administration's first envoy to Pyongyang on Dec. 8, likely dashed one of North Korea's time-tested tactics of trying to drive wedges between its dialogue partners.

Here are some implications of Obama's Asian tour on nuclear diplomacy with North Korea:

* Regional powers will expect North Korea to take some action to reduce the security risk it poses to Asia after U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth visits Pyongyang in December.

* The United States and others want to see at least a return to commitments reached in 2005 under a six-way deal where the North resumes dismantling its ageing Yongbyon nuclear plant that makes arm-grade plutonium and permits international inspectors to verify claims it made about its nuclear programme.

* The United States will keep pressing for strict implementation of fresh U.N. sanctions imposed after the North's nuclear test in May aimed at cutting off the money it receives from selling weapons, its biggest export item.

* Washington will keep in reserve a threat to clamp down on the North's international finances.

* South Korea will pressure North Korea by refraining from giving unconditional handout, which at one time were equal to about 5 percent of the North's estimated $17 billion a year economy.

* The pressure alone may not be enough for North Korea to move beyond commitments it made, but has since abandoned, namely to disable and then dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear plant.

* Few expect North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, which Pyongyang regards as its main leverage over what it sees as a hostile United States and also the crowning achievement of leader Kim Jong-il's "military first" rule.

* North Korea's disarmament decision will likely be based on the state of its finances. Leader Kim is coming under pressure at home due to his pledges to rebuild the country's economy by 2012 and implement succession plans, which will require him to spend big to ensure the support of top level cadres.

* North Korea may try to increase its bargaining leverage through military moves that could include missile launches, skirmishes with the South or even another nuclear test.

News Source : reuters.com

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